Roberts is a quintessential establistment stealth nominee, a Wall Street Repug and a true Federalist Society hack. If his past record screams anything, dismantling federal regulatory power under the Commerse Clause is his true objective. In such, a Roberts' Court leaving Roe in tact as the law of the land would allow the Repugs to exploit the fundies at the ballot box for another generation, thus keeping the door open for the appointment of more justices who are of similar mind.
Roe has become an albatross for Democrats. When considered in relation to the entire scope of constitutional law, Roe has occupied a substantially disproportionate influence on Democratic judicial philosophy. This in turn has lead to the entire game being played on their side of the fifty yard line with Democrats on defense every time a vacancy on the Supreme Court has become available.
I diaried this subject matter in greater detail just a few days ago. If Roe were overturned, I don't think Democrats would be the losers. Quite the contrary, it would lite the fuse in southern states, sharpen the difference between the parties and make supposed moderates who have been able to hide behind Roe choose a side. Those few states which would enact legislation criminalizing abortion in all cases would become isolated. By returning this decision to the states, a dual purpose is served. The fundies become divided and the battle can thus be waged on more favorable grounds were they can be drawn from their caves and slain in more instances than not.
For these reasons, I believe the "one state is too much to give up" crowd is draining the Democratic Party both in terms of judical nominees as well as the ballot box. Maintaining Roe has become such a huge distraction for the Democrats that the extremely vocal minority within the party who are absolutists on this question might wish to reconsider their position if they believe building a winning coalition to be a higher priority.
Not to put too much of an old-school Marxist point on it, but the bourgeoisie needs the Lumpenproletariat to prop it up. When the lumpies achieve that mythical class consciousness, look out.
Roe has become an albatross for Democrats.
The only way it has become an albatross is the now the Democratic leadership wants to abandon is base and join in with the wingnuts.
I'm not immune to the argument that abortion would most likely be criminalized in states where women can least afford to travel to states where it would remain legal. This is by far the most troubling aspect for me in advocating Democrats to abandon Roe.
Nevertheless, until the impact of Roe is reduced, Democrats are always going to be behind the eight ball due to the fact that Roe occupies a significantly higher priority than it should among those who might vote otherwise in federal elections if Roe were taken off of the table.
As far as Democrats abandoning their base, Registered Democrats outnumber Repugs 3-2 in Kentucky but flock to Repugs in federal elections due in large part to their opposition to Roe; consequently, I don't necessarily agree with your argument on this one. If you took Roe off of the table in federal elections down here, a slight difference between the two corporate parties might actually take place.
Dems are being set up by anti-choicers like Reid.
you forget all those little laws that they have already implemented like it is now illegal in many states to take minors over state lines to get abortions...
While there may be more people who are pro-choice than pro-life, Pro-lifers are more politically active and put a greater priority whether or not a candidate agrees with their position on abortion.
Second of all, a large percentage of the few states with a bona-fide pro-life majority were once Democratic strongholds and are now trending Republican. LA, MO, TN, AR, WV, KY, and SD are all states where the Democratic Party has clearly been hurt by this issue.
Republicans have figured out how to neutralize the issue by running pro-choice Republicans in pro-choice areas. The Democrats should likewise run pro-life Democrats in pro-life areas. Abortion is such a personal issue that it should not be considered a "party" issue. (I believe this is the position of the three major parties in the U.K.) It should certainly NOT be a defining issue as to whether or not one is a good Democrat.
If Roe were overturned, it would go back to the states. Mississippi's ONE abortion clinic would probably close. "Blue staters" would have nothing to worry about. In most states the "mushy middle" would make policy, keeping abortion legal in the early weeks, but more restricted in the latter. Parental consent laws would be passed with judicial bypass.
The states that make abortion illegal would be in a situation similar to Ireland. Plenty of Irish women get abortions in the UK, even though Ireland has extremely restrictive abortion laws.
Basically, if Roe were overturned, not much would change. However, whatever decision that would be made would be made by the people and their elected representatives, and not by the courts, which isn't a bad thing.
